The USMNT Choked Again, Your FIFA Quarterfinals Are Set, Is France Going to Win This Whole Thing

So there I was, watching the United States Men’s National Team carry a lead deep into their Round of 16 match, thinking—just maybe—this generation might finally be different. Maybe these kids, with all their European pedigree and technical ability, had exorcised the demons of tournaments past.

And then the 88th minute happened.

Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat this because that’s not what the Balz family does. The USMNT had a knockout round victory in their grasp—TWICE—and they let it slip away like a wet bar of soap in a locker room shower. They led. They equalized after going down. And then, with qualification to the quarterfinals sitting right there on a silver platter, they conceded a late goal and went home.

That’s not just disappointing. That’s a pattern, and patterns tell you everything about a program’s mentality.

The stats don’t lie: the US controlled possession for stretches, created chances, and showed genuine quality in moments. But here’s my take, and I’m hanging my byline on it—quality in moments doesn’t win tournaments. Mental fortitude wins tournaments. Defending with discipline in the dying minutes wins tournaments. And that 88th-minute defensive breakdown? That’s the kind of stuff that separates pretenders from contenders.

My brother Harry probably would’ve written something diplomatic about “learning experiences” and “building for the future.” Not me. I call it what it is: a failure to close. In sports, leading means nothing if you can’t finish. Ask the ’07 Patriots. Ask the Warriors after 3-1. Heck, ask any Atlanta sports team ever.

What does this say about US men’s soccer? It says we’re still learning how to win when it counts. We’ve got the talent—Christian Pulisic is world-class, Weston McKennie can dominate midfield, and the young guns like Yunus Musah have legitimate technical chops. But talent without championship mentality is just expensive mediocrity. We’re getting better at producing players who can compete in Europe’s top leagues, but we’re still figuring out how to produce winners in tournament pressure cookers.

The Europeans know how to close games. The South Americans know how to grind out results when they’re not playing well. The USMNT? We’re still learning those lessons the hard way, one heartbreaking exit at a time.

But enough funeral proceedings—let’s talk about who’s still dancing and who’s heading to the final eight.

THE FAVORITES (AND YES, THEY’RE OBVIOUS)

France is still the team to beat. Even without firing on all cylinders, they’ve got Kylian Mbappé operating like a cheat code and a defensive structure that would make a Swiss watchmaker weep with envy. Didier Deschamps has been here before—twice—and won it all once. They’re my pick to reach the semis minimum.

England looks legitimately dangerous this time, and I’m as shocked as you are to write that. Harry Kane finally looks healthy and hungry, Jude Bellingham is playing like the €100 million maestro he was billed as, and Gareth Southgate might have actually figured out how to organize a defense. They’ve dispatched their Round of 16 opponent with clinical efficiency. Still, it’s England—I’ll believe they can win the whole thing when I see them holding the trophy, and not a second before.

THE DARK HORSES WITH REAL BITE

Portugal with Cristiano Ronaldo on what might be his last dance is compelling theater. Say what you want about CR7’s ego—and believe me, I’ve got opinions—but the man delivers in big moments. Bruno Fernandes pulling strings behind him, and a defense that’s actually staying organized? They could absolutely reach the final.

Spain is doing what Spain does: possessing teams to death with a thousand cuts. They’re young, they’re fearless, and they don’t know they’re supposed to be in transition. Pedri and Gavi are running midfields like seasoned veterans while being young enough to have trouble renting cars. If they can find consistent finishing, watch out.

THE CHAOS AGENTS

Brazil should be here, but they’re playing with an edge I haven’t seen in years. Less samba, more street fight. That might actually work in a tournament setting. They survived a scare in the Round of 16, but champions often need a wake-up call. Consider them awake.

Netherlands is the team nobody wants to face and everybody underestimates. They’re not flashy, they’re just ruthlessly effective. Virgil van Dijk anchoring that defense while Memphis Depay creates chaos up front? That’s a recipe for ruining somebody’s dreams in the quarterfinals.

MY FINAL EIGHT PREDICTION:

The USMNT Choked Again, Your FIFA Quarterfinals Are Set, Is France Going to Win This Whole Thing?
France, England, Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Netherlands, Germany (because you can never count out the Germans in a tournament), and Argentina (because Lionel Messi wills things into existence now).

If I’m laying money down—and I am, just ask my accountant—I’ve got France and England meeting in one semifinal, with Spain shocking Brazil in the other. The final? France edges Spain 2-1, Mbappé scores the winner, and we all spend the next four years debating whether this French team is better than the ’98 or 2018 squads.

But here’s the thing about tournaments: they don’t care about predictions. They create legends and break hearts, often in the same ninety minutes. That’s what makes them beautiful and brutal in equal measure.

The USMNT learned that the hard way. Again.

For The Hairy Times, this is Jim Balz reminding you that leading at 85 minutes means absolutely nothing if you can’t defend for five more. See you next tournament, US Soccer. Bring a sports psychologist.